The wisdom of the ancients teaches us that there are “victories” not worth winning when the one who appears to be the victor loses much more than his opponent. This is what is happening to the strongman of Kigali.
After proudly showing off and twice refusing to accept angolan president Joao Lourenço‘s invitation in the hope of imposing their will on the Democratic Republic of Congo by force of arms alone, President Paul Kagame and his phalanx have resolved to go to the negotiating table in Doha, Qatar. After a preliminary meeting, a second one, intended to address the substance of the problem, was announced for April 9, although on the ground, Congolese government troops (FARDC) and patriotic resistance fighters (Wazalendo) were clashing with the Rwanda Defense Forces expeditionary force and their M23/AFC-RDF auxiliaries in North and South Kivu. The Rwandan aggressors make no secret of their intentions to capture Kisangani, the DRC’s third-largest city, and to continue their offensive toward the former province of Katanga. But everything indicates that the extension of supply lines across the vast Congolese territory constitutes a trap that Kigali’s strategists misjudged, as illustrated by the incessant harassment of the rear lines of the occupying forces by the Congolese resistance.
Admittedly, by mid-March 2025, the situation on the ground with the clashes in North and South Kivu was very bleak for Kinshasa. With the fall of Walikale to Rwandan troops, in addition to Goma, the provincial capital two months earlier, four rural capitals of North-Kivu had fallen: Walikale-Centre, Masisi-Centre, Kibumba (Nyiragongo) and Rutshuru. In addition to these towns and cities, the rwandan occupation also extended to important mining areas, including Rubaya, the now famous coltan mine in Masisi, and the Mugisha gold mining area in the Bunyatengo region near Lubero.
In neighboring South Kivu, the Rwandan offensive launched on January 18, 2025, culminated in the fall of Bukavu, the provincial capital, on February 15. Kamanyola and several other towns in the region also fell into the hands of the invaders, extending the fighting to the Ruzizi Plain and even to Uvira, a major border town with Burundi, 75 km from Kamanyola.
Slowed Progress
For several weeks, however, it appears that the Rwandan army and the Congolese renegades have slowed their advances, constrained by resistance and attacks from the Wazalendo coalition of patriotic resistance fighters, who, with the support of the FARDC, have severely disrupted the advance of RDF troops on several fronts, including the Ruzizi Plain, where the attackers are clearly struggling to advance toward Uvira, only 75 km from the already occupied Kamanyola.
Rather than the knife-slicing occupation he had hoped for, President Paul Kagame finds himself facing an increasingly inextricable situation throughout this part of the country, where it appears as if the invading forces, as they move further away from their rwandan bases, are finding it increasingly difficult to defeat their enemies. In a statement addressed to “the FCC/M23 authorities” widely circulated on social media on March 29, civil society in Bukavu, all trends combined, called on Rwanda’s proxies controlling the capital of South Kivu to “leave the city without fighting, as we had previously requested from the legitimate provincial authorities, because you are currently in the same situation”. The signatories of the statement, members of the Civil Society Coordination Bureau, Forces vives, the New Dynamics of Civil Society, the New Civil Society and the Environmental Civil Society, as well as the Citizens’ Movements of South-Kivu, note that the AFC-M23 and the Rwandan army have clearly lost Walungu and Kaziba and are unable to advance further towards the Ruzizi Plain. “Humbly, as we previously asked the FARDC, we also ask you today, please spare the city of Bukavu and take up positions further away and take advantage of the outstretched hand of international structures which are urging dialogue”, they insist.
Fragile Conquests
In South Kivu, three days after the RDF entered Bukavu, the situation was rather ominous for the aggressors, as the Bukavu-Nyangezi axis had transformed into a front where the Wazalendo were multiplying attacks and ambushes. On Road N°5 between Nyantende and Toyota, the clashes had forced the Rwandan coalition to increase its troops to try to keep control of the situation. Bukavu was becoming inhabitable for both the population and the occupiers due to the worsening insecurity. A little over 45 days after the capture this city, the situation remains confused on several front lines. On April 1st, violent clashes between the FARDC, supported by the Wazalendo and RDF-M23/AFC, at the Munya trading center in Karhongo (Nyangenzi) were reported. According to some sources, the town has fallen into the hands of the Wazalendo. In Toyota, 15 km from Bukavu, a column of vehicles transporting reinforcements for the RDF was ambushed by Wazalendo, causing around twenty deaths among the attackers, according to local sources. In Katana, Kabare territory, FARDC and Wazalendo resistance fighters routed the attackers following violent fighting on March 25, while in Kavumu, North of Bukavu, fighting between the FARDC-Wazalendo and Rwandan forces raged. In the aftermath, several villages came under the control of loyalist forces, according to sources in the region: Katana, Kabamba, Lwiro, Cegera, Kabushwa, Matu, Cirehe, Ciranga, Kayanja, Nyakadakamyanzi.
Unstable Victories
The situation is also confused in the Fizi Highlands, where Twirwaneho armed group and Burundian Red Tabara rebels, allied with the Rwandan invaders, are fighting the FARDC, supported by the Wazalendo. In Lusuku village, loyalist forces managed to halt a rebel incursion on April 1st. Twenty-four hours later, reports circulated of the M23 entering Minembwe, but this were later denied by independent sources.
In neighboring North Kivu, on April 2nd, reports from humanitarian sources indicated the recapture of Walikale-Centre by the FARDC, supported by Wazalendo. The Walikale mining territory chief town, which had fallen into the hands of the RDF rebels on March 19, had been emptied of its attackers. “The M23 rebels left the city during the night. We woke up this Wednesday morning and didn’t meet anyone here. When the news spread, the Wazalendo arrived, there were several crackles of gunfire, and unfortunately, businesses and homes were visited by unknown individuals“, reports a local traditional authority. Fighting around the city had been reported for several days. On March 30, clashes between the FARDC – Wazalendo and RDF elements were reported near Mount Mika, concurrently with a massive redeployment of the FARDC throughout Kaziba, particularly on the strategic hills of Katope, in Kalemba, Kanege, Karhambi, and on Mount N’nangando, previously occupied only by the Wazalendo resistance.
Confused Situations
On Sunday, March 30, the Wazalendo successfully launched an attack on a rebel position on the hill housing the administrative offices of the Walikale territory. Subsequently, the resistance fighters advanced as far as the Nyalusukula military camp, not far from the local General Hospital, before withdrawing, according to local sources. Meanwhile, on the southern axis, RDF-AFC/M23 elements clashed with the Wazalendo supported by the FARDC in Kampala, 6 km from Walikale-Centre.
The recapture of Walikale-Centre by loyalist forces on Wednesday, April 2, followed an offensive launched by a Wazalendo group led by a certain Kalumende against a position of the occupiers on the axis known as Cité Belge. Sources cited by online colleagues indicate that these resistant patriots came from Kampala, 6 km from Walikale-Centre.
In Masisi territory, under rebel occupation since early January, fighting has also been reported between the RDF-AFC/M23 coalition and the Wazalendo of the APCLS (Alliance of Patriots for a Free and Sovereign Congo) coming from the Nyabiondo-Butombo axis.
Unlike previous occupations of cities and towns in Eastern DRC by Rwandan-created rebels, the military conquests of the Rwandan army, with the complicity of Congolese renegades, are far from restless. In addition to the fact that they are often limited to urban and mining areas, leaving entire swathes of peripheral areas and localities completely uncontrolled, they now appear to be severely tested by both civilian and armed resistance. On many front lines, the Rwandan coalition’s advances have proven to be truly Pyrrhic victories that have tended to turn into hell for the “victors.”
Jacques Ntshula With Le Maximum